NSCAI Draft Final Report

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies promise to be the most powerful tools in generations for expanding knowledge, increasing prosperity, and enriching the human experience. The technologies will be the foundation of the innovation economy and a source of enormous power for countries that harness them. AI will fuel competition between governments and companies racing to field it. And it will be employed by nation states to pursue their strategic ambitions.

Americans have not yet seriously grappled with how profoundly the AI revolution will impact society, the economy, and national security. Recent AI breakthroughs, such as a computer defeating a human in the popular strategy game of Go,1 shocked other nations into action, but did not inspire the same response in the United States. Americans have not recognized the assertive role the government will have to play in ensuring the United States wins this innovation competition. And they have not contemplated the scale of public resources required to achieve it. Despite our private sector and university leadership in AI, the United States remains unprepared for the coming era.

The magnitude of the technological opportunity coincides with a moment of strategic vulnerability. China is a competitor possessing the might, talent, and ambition to challenge America’s technological leadership, military superiority, and its broader position in the world. AI is deepening the threat posed by cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns that Russia, China, and other state and non-state actors use to infiltrate our society, steal our data, and interfere in our democracy. Global crises exemplified in the global pandemic and climate change are expanding the definition of national security and crying out for innovative solutions. AI can help us navigate many of these challenges.

We are fortunate. The AI revolution is not a strategic surprise. We are experiencing its impact in our daily lives and can anticipate how research progress will translate into real world applications before we have to confront the full national security ramifications. This commission can warn of national security challenges and articulate the benefits, rather than explain why previous warnings were ignored and opportunities were missed. We still have a window to make the changes to build a safer and better future. Read More

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