Coups, unlike other political crises that unfold over weeks, months, or years, are precisely timed events aimed at ousting a very specific individual from power. This precision means the risk of a coup may vary greatly over the course of a year. It can change instantaneously during transitions between leaders. For this reason, CoupCast estimates a unique risk of a coup attempt for every individual leader for each month he or she is in power.

This page provides a brief non-technical overview of the CoupCast methodology. For more extensive details, please visit our dataset page. Read More