In this episode of “Intelligence Matters,” National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Chair and Former CEO of Google Eric Schmidt joins Michael Morell to discuss the importance of investing in artificial intelligence as a national security priority. Schmidt believes China is likely to catch up to the U.S. in a few years in its artificial intelligence capabilities. He outlines how intelligence and national defense can benefit from superiority in these technologies and the benefits of holding A.I. to American values. Read More
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The AI arms race has us on the road to Armageddon
It’s now a given that countries worldwide are battling for AI supremacy. To date, most of the public discussion surrounding this competition has focused on commercial gains flowing from the technology. But the AI arms race for military applications is racing ahead as well, and concerned scientists, academics, and AI industry leaders have been sounding the alarm.
Compared to existing military capabilities, AI-enabled technology can make decisions on the battlefield with mathematical speed and accuracy and never get tired. However, countries and organizations developing this tech are only just beginning to articulate ideas about how ethics will influence the wars of the near future. Clearly, the development of AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems will raise significant risks for instability and conflict escalation. However, calls to ban these weapons are unlikely to succeed.
In an era of rising military tensions and risk, leading militaries worldwide are moving ahead with AI-enabled weapons and decision support, seeking leading-edge battlefield and security applications. The military potential of these weapons is substantial, but ethical concerns are largely being brushed aside. Already they are in use to guard ships against small boat attacks, search for terrorists, stand sentry, and destroy adversary air defenses. Read More
Global Trends 2040
DURING THE PAST YEAR, THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAS REMINDED THE WORLD OF ITS FRAGILITY AND DEMONSTRATED THE INHERENT RISKS OF HIGH LEVELS OF INTERDEPENDENCE. IN COMING YEARS AND DECADES, THE WORLD WILL FACE MORE INTENSE AND CASCADING GLOBAL CHALLENGES RANGING FROM DISEASE TO CLIMATE CHANGE TO THE DISRUPTIONS FROM NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND FINANCIAL CRISES These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states, and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce greater contestation at every level.
In this more contested world, communities are increasingly fractured as people seek security with like-minded groups based on established and newly prominent identities; states of all types and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of more connected, more urban, and more empowered populations; and the international system is more competitive—shaped in part by challenges from a rising China—and at greater risk of conflict as states and nonstate actors exploit new sources of power and erode longstanding norms and institutions that have provided some stability in past decades. These dynamics are not fixed in perpetuity, however, and we envision a variety of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040—from a democratic renaissance to a transformation in global cooperation spurred by shared tragedy—depending on how these dynamics interact and human choices along the way. Read More
China leads the U.S. in three critical AI areas — data, applications, and integration — according to Bob Work
The US has a narrow lead on China in artificial intelligence, but the Chinese are catching up fast. In fact, they’re already at least narrowly ahead in three of six critical areas, the vice-chair of the National Security Commission on AI said today.
“We do not believe China is ahead right now in AI” overall, Robert Work said, speaking at a Pentagon press conference alongside Lt. Gen. Mike Groen, the director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. But, Work went on, “look, AI is not a single technology, it is a bundle of technologies” – what professionals in the field call the “AI stack.”
As Work and the commission’s final report explain it, the AI stack has six interdependent layers. The foundational layer is not technology but people who know what to do with it. The second most fundamental layer is data, the raw material machine learning must ingest en masse to evolve. Then there’s hardware, on which everything else runs; algorithms, the complex and ever-evolving equations that drive machine learning; applications, which apply algorithms to specific functions; and integration, which ties different applications together. Read More
The future of AI is being shaped right now. How should policymakers respond?
The US government is contemplating how to shape AI policy. Competition with China looms large.
For a long time, artificial intelligence seemed like one of those inventions that would always be 50 years away. The scientists who developed the first computers in the 1950s speculated about the possibility of machines with greater-than-human capacities. But enthusiasm didn’t necessarily translate into a commercially viable product, let alone a superintelligent one.
And for a while — in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s — it seemed like such speculation would remain just that. The sluggishness of AI development actually gave rise to a term: “AI winters,” periods when investors and researchers got bored with lack of progress in the field and devoted their attention elsewhere.
No one is bored now. Read More
The Perils of Overhyping Artificial Intelligence
In 1983, the U.S. military’s research and development arm began a ten-year, $1 billion machine intelligence program aimed at keeping the United States ahead of its technological rivals. From the start, computer scientists criticized the project as unrealistic. It promised big and ultimately failed hard in the eyes of the Pentagon, ushering in a long artificial intelligence (AI) “winter” during which potential funders, including the U.S. military, shied away from big investments in the field and abandoned promising areas of research.
Today, AI is once again the darling of the national security services. And once again, it risks sliding backward as a result of a destructive “hype cycle” in which overpromising conspires with inevitable setbacks to undermine the long-term success of a transformative new technology. Military powers around the world are investing heavily in AI, seeking battlefield and other security applications that might provide an advantage over potential adversaries. In the United States, there is a growing sense of urgency around AI, and rightly so. As former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper put it, “Those who are first to harness once-in-a-generation technologies often have a decisive advantage on the battlefield for years to come.” However, there is a very real risk that expectations are being set too high and that an unwillingness to tolerate failures will mean the United States squanders AI’s potential and falls behind its rivals. Read More
ACLU Files AI FOIA Request
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to find out how America’s national security and intelligence agencies are using artificial intelligence (AI).
The ACLU said it made the request out of concern that AI was being used in ways that could violate Americans’ civil rights.
The request follows the March 1 release of a 16-chapter report containing recommendations on how AI, machine learning, and associated technologies should be used by the Biden administration. Read More
U.S. Unprepared for AI Competition with China, Commission Finds
Retaining any edge will take White House leadership and a substantial investment, according to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence is out with its comprehensive final report recommending a path forward for ensuring U.S. superiority in AI that calls for the Defense Department and the intelligence community to become “AI-ready” by 2025.
NSCAI on Monday during a public meeting voted to approve its final report, which will also be sent to Congress. The report culminates two years of work that began after the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act established the commission to review advances in AI, machine learning and associated technologies. Read More
GCHQ: Pioneering a New National Security — The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence
…AI is now present in every aspect of British life. It enables our telecommunications systems, our smartphones, our banks, our National Health Service. The UK’s global leadership in AI and data science is a major part of what has made the UK a thriving cyber power, and AI stands to add billions to the British economy.
… At GCHQ, we believe that AI capabilities will be at the heart of our future ability to protect the UK. They will enable analysts to manage the ever-increasing volume and complexity of data, improving the quality and speed of their decision-making. Keeping the UK’s citizens safe and prosperous in a digital age will increasingly depend on the success of these systems.
…These are major issues of international importance and this paper can only hope to begin a conversation on the way ahead. Read More
NSCAI Draft Final Report
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies promise to be the most powerful tools in generations for expanding knowledge, increasing prosperity, and enriching the human experience. The technologies will be the foundation of the innovation economy and a source of enormous power for countries that harness them. AI will fuel competition between governments and companies racing to field it. And it will be employed by nation states to pursue their strategic ambitions.
Americans have not yet seriously grappled with how profoundly the AI revolution will impact society, the economy, and national security. Recent AI breakthroughs, such as a computer defeating a human in the popular strategy game of Go,1 shocked other nations into action, but did not inspire the same response in the United States. Americans have not recognized the assertive role the government will have to play in ensuring the United States wins this innovation competition. And they have not contemplated the scale of public resources required to achieve it. Despite our private sector and university leadership in AI, the United States remains unprepared for the coming era.
The magnitude of the technological opportunity coincides with a moment of strategic vulnerability. China is a competitor possessing the might, talent, and ambition to challenge America’s technological leadership, military superiority, and its broader position in the world. AI is deepening the threat posed by cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns that Russia, China, and other state and non-state actors use to infiltrate our society, steal our data, and interfere in our democracy. Global crises exemplified in the global pandemic and climate change are expanding the definition of national security and crying out for innovative solutions. AI can help us navigate many of these challenges.
We are fortunate. The AI revolution is not a strategic surprise. We are experiencing its impact in our daily lives and can anticipate how research progress will translate into real world applications before we have to confront the full national security ramifications. This commission can warn of national security challenges and articulate the benefits, rather than explain why previous warnings were ignored and opportunities were missed. We still have a window to make the changes to build a safer and better future. Read More
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