AI Is Slowing Down

Last week I went on Bloomberg and discussed the state of the AI bubble with a clarity that rattled even the sweatiest boosters, mostly because I spoke with clarity about an investment frenzy whipped up through hype, deceit and mythology. Some were equal parts frustrated and angry that I don’t have money in the market, or, as they’d put it, “skin in the game.”

I get it! When your entire worldview is dictated by what a series of venture capitalists and psuedo-journalists on Twitter want you to believe, it must be difficult to imagine someone having “morals” or “beliefs” or that one might hold a position that wasn’t entirely based on greed or tribalism. It must be confusing — upsetting, even! — to hear that somebody is willing to accurately and vociferously tear into a tech industry largely controlled by people with no regard for their users or workers, who are willing to bathe their products in mediocrity all because it’s the thing that everybody else is doing.

This is a hysterical era perpetuated by liars, cowards, imbeciles, craven boosters and the easily-fooled. Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible. — Read More

#investing

The Speed of Prototyping in the Age of AI

A few years back I wrote about my love of throwaway prototypes; those little proof-of-concepts that exist purely to get an idea out of your head and into something tangible. At the time, my biggest bottleneck was me; the time it took to scaffold a project, wire up the boring bits, and get to a place where the interesting parts could actually be tested. Fast forward to now, and that bottleneck has all but vanished.

I’ve been a little hesitant to write about this. I’ve already shared some cautious thoughts on AI and where it fits into my workflow, and I stand by all of it. I still think the industry is figuring things out in real time, and I still think it pays to be careful. But cautious doesn’t mean blind, and the honest truth is that AI has changed how quickly I can go from “I wonder if…” to “oh, it works”. — Read More

#devops

Claude Fable 5 and new AI safety fables

Today, Anthropic released their Claude Fable 5 model to consumer and enterprise audiences. This is the general-access variant of their Mythos-class models. With it, Anthropic rolled out a series of safety measures — some explicitly called out to users and some modifying the model without telling the user. It should be less surprising than it is that the next major step in AI capabilities came with heavier-handed safety measures indicating Anthropic’s intention to protect, or entrench, their current lead.

The unevenly applied safety policies that Anthropic have rolled out are on track to become a classic cautionary fable in how narrow and self-fulfilling notions of safety and control rarely work out. — Read More

#cyber

Apple Wins Consumer AI By Default

From a pure AI perspective, nothing Apple showcased during their WWDC keynote yesterday was particularly groundbreaking. In fact, much of it featured capabilities long since available in other AI tools and services – in some cases, years ago. And guess what? That doesn’t matter. Based on what we saw yesterday, Apple is set to win in AI. At least from a consumer perspective.

I know how crazy this sounds. It’s not just that Apple has been viewed as behind in AI for the past few years, it’s that they’ve been more or less a laughingstock given how they tried to roll out ‘Apple Intelligence’ two years ago and failed to the point of settling lawsuits around false advertising. But if Apple is actually able to roll out what they showcased yesterday – I’ll get to the caveats below – and there’s reason to believe they can this time, they’re about to infuriate many people and companies across a wide swath of industries. That’s because Apple seems on the verge of doing what they always do: watching new products and services come about and then jumping in later with a better user experience to win the day.Read More

#strategy

Clarifying Myths in the US vs China War

Welcome back! This is an article I’ve wanted to write for a while now, exclusively focused on clearing up some of the most prevalent myths in this space, especially regarding China.

With the world suddenly realizing that AI is expensive, the “battle” between the US and China for AI supremacy is hotter than ever. If the tide turns in favor of Chinese open models, the trillions of dollars at stake could be at clear risk.

But as always, the picture is much more nuanced, and several of your beliefs right now that you have been told are simply blatantly false. — Read More

#china-vs-us