There are four major findings about operations critical to the effectiveness and success of future of intelligence operations in 2035-2050 and beyond. The findings apply broadly not only to military intelligence, but the greater Intelligence Community (IC), the DoD, and by default to several other elements of our federal national security framework. However, realizing the Future Intelligence CONOPS 2035-2050 projection assumes addressing the findings. If not, it highly probable intelligence operations will continue to mimic the current reactive posture of today.
The four findings:
— The IC and DoD, created in 1947, continue to function in a primarily reactive posture, using the industrial age processes of the era in which they were created.
— Information & democratization of technology has changed the character of warfare.
— 2018 National Security and Defense Security Strategies address the new character of warfare.
— Immediate investments are required to enable the success and effectiveness of future intelligence operations in 2035-2050 and beyond. Read More
Tag Archives: DoD
National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI): Initial Report
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence — which is tasked with researching ways to advance the development of AI for national security and defense purposes — released its initial report to Congress July 31.
The panel has 15 members, led by Chairman Eric Schmidt, the former head of Google’s parent company Alphabet, and Vice Chairman Robert O. Work, a former deputy secretary of defense who served in the Obama administration. Read More
National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI): Interim Report
In the report, the government-commissioned panel notes many times that China is investing more in AI and is taking advantage of the U.S. to “transfer AI know-how.” The report also says that AI infrastructure within the Department of Defense “is severely underdeveloped.”
The Commission raised concerns about the progress China has made. The report also said the U.S. government still faces enormous work before it can transition AI from “a promising technological novelty into a mature technology integrated into core national security missions.” Read More
‘Tectonic shift’ of Space Command has intelligence community feeling aftershocks
Redefining space as a warfighting domain made waves throughout the defense community as they began thinking about defending assets in space. Maj. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander for Air Force Space Command, called the creation of Space Command a “tectonic shift.” Now the aftershocks of that shift are being felt in the intelligence community as analysts have to reconsider space’s role in intelligence gathering.
“When you think of space and intelligence together, you might be like me: I spent my career thinking about intelligence collection in space coming down to the Earth, intelligence from space,” Shaw said on Agency in Focus: Intelligence Community. “We need to think really, really hard now about intelligence for space. Where is that intelligence expertise that processes the capabilities? We have to understand what’s actually happening in the space environment.” Read More
Intelligence community laying foundation for AI data analysis
Artificial intelligence is a concept that seems tailor-made for the intelligence community. The ability to sort through massive amounts of data, seeking out patterns large and small, anomalies that warrant further investigation, that’s what intelligence analysts do already. Imagine what they could achieve when augmented by AI?
But it’s not as simple as just adopting it. Dean Souleles, chief technology advisor for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said on Agency in Focus – Intelligence Community that the IC is working now to lay the foundation for adopting AI. Read More
Defense Innovation Board unveils AI ethics principles for the Pentagon
The Defense Innovation Board, a panel of 16 prominent technologists advising the Pentagon, today voted to approve AI ethics principles for the Department of Defense. The report includes 12 recommendations for how the U.S. military can apply ethics in the future for both combat and non-combat AI systems. The principles are broken into five main principles: responsible, equitable, traceable, reliable, and governable.
The principles state that humans should remain responsible for “developments, deployments, use and outcomes,” and AI systems used by the military should be free of bias that can lead to unintended human harm. Read More
Intelligence & National Security 2019 — Opening Plenary: Fireside Chat
Harnessing Data at the Speed of War
Decades of parochialism within the U.S. military fostered isolated digital networks that force the user to serve as integrator, squandering organizational energy and intellect. For the past 18 years, the U.S. and our partners have been fighting counterinsurgency and counterterrorism wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In these theaters, arcane methods of digital collaboration with complicated workarounds became the norm, but our ability to set favorable conditions for operations mitigated the egregious distraction of outdated networks. In other words, we got away with it. We are unlikely to be so fortunate against adversaries like Russia or China that can match or exceed our capabilities. The ability to rapidly synthesize data to inform decision-making across all echelons and domains is necessary to achieve victory.
The services lack the ability to effectively communicate – whether internally, amongst one another, with the intelligence community, or with multinational partners. The DoD needs to establish joint data standards with the goal of creating commonly-accessible data. Without commonly-accessible data, the U.S. military will not realize the potential of 21st-century technologies. We remain too reactive and slow to mitigate risk and seize opportunities,[1] and our function- and service-centric infrastructure prevents digital collaboration. Read More
America Needs a “Dead Hand”
America’s nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) system comprises many component systems that were designed and fielded during the Cold War — a period when nuclear missiles were set to launch from deep within Soviet territory, giving the United States sufficient time to react. That era is over. Today, Russian and Chinese nuclear modernization is rapidly compressing the time U.S. leaders will have to detect a nuclear launch, decide on a course of action, and direct a response. ….
If the ultimate purpose of the NC3 system is to ensure America’s senior leadership has the information and time needed to command and control nuclear forces, then the penultimate purpose of a reliable NC3 system is to reinforce the desired deterrent effect. To maintain the deterrent value of America’s strategic forces, the United States may need to develop something that might seem unfathomable — an automated strategic response system based on artificial intelligence. Read More
Finding enemy radars by Moonlight
Ever since radar proved a game-changer for air defence in World War II, increasingly advanced systems have enabled the accurate detection of enemy aircraft, ships, land systems and missiles and more. But adversaries have equivalent systems that pose a risk to military operations, and not knowing where they are could prove disastrous.
“So we created some business rules and put those manual verification and validation processes into software rules into our system which we’ve called Moonlight. Read More
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